Abstract
This study evaluates broadband market competitiveness in U.S. counties using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), with a focus on pricing trends across internet speed tiers. The index is a well-established tool used to evaluate the size of companies relative to the size of the broader industry they exist in.
Our analysis reveals a concerning lack of robust competitiveness in most American broadband markets, with significant implications for consumer choice and pricing. Over 96% of counties exhibit highly concentrated markets (as defined by the U.S. Department of Justice) for broadband plans (≥100 Mbps), where few counties with HHI scores below 1,500 exist.
Analyzing 3,143 counties in all 50 states, we find a moderate-to-strong correlation (Spearman ρ ≈ 0.45) between market concentration and higher average prices, with 21% of price variation associated with HHI. These results underscore systemic uncompetitiveness, disproportionately affecting rural and underserved communities.
Why It Matters
Four years into the BEAD era, broadband competition remains starkly uneven across America—creating a critical inflection point as we enter a period of explosive growth in bandwidth demand. High-speed connectivity has evolved from a convenience to the fundamental gateway for participation in tomorrow’s economy, where AI, immersive technologies, and advanced digital services will redefine work, education, and healthcare.
As these transformative technologies become essential, millions of Americans face inflated prices, with lower pricing existing primarily in competitive urban centers. While progress in metropolitan areas demonstrates what’s possible, the majority of counties lacking significant competition pose a risk of the country falling behind in the coming wave of digital transformation.
Affordability isn’t merely desirable—it’s absolutely essential for participation in tomorrow’s economy. Without robustly competitive markets driving down prices, millions of Americans will be priced out of the high-bandwidth applications that will increasingly determine economic opportunity, educational achievement, and healthcare outcomes. This creates an urgent imperative to ensure every community has truly affordable connectivity through healthy market competition, as cost barriers today will translate directly into widening inequality tomorrow. The digital future must be accessible not just technically but financially to all Americans, regardless of geography or income level.
Key Findings
- Widespread Market Concentration: Over 96% of U.S. counties show high market concentration (HHI > 2,500), indicating severely limited competition in broadband services. The average HHI score nationwide was 5,842.
- Price Impact: Broadband prices are significantly higher in less competitive markets. The typical price in the 300 least competitive counties is $269.90, compared to $174.23 in the 300 most competitive counties—a difference of $95.67 or 35.44% higher in concentrated markets.
- Urban-Rural Divide: While urban areas generally show more competition, many rural counties face virtual monopolies in broadband service, with HHI scores approaching 10,000 (perfect monopoly).
- Success Stories: While market concentration remains high nationwide, a small number of counties stand out for achieving notably healthier competition levels.
Large County Analysis: Size Doesn’t Guarantee Competition
While large metropolitan areas generally tend to have more competitive broadband markets, several major counties with populations over 500,000 show surprisingly high market concentration:
Suffolk County, NY (HHI: 5,081.86)
- Located on Long Island, east of New York City.
- Market is highly concentrated, meaning fewer ISPs dominate the area.
- Average price per month: $180.51, reflecting reduced competition.
- Infrastructure limitations and local policies may contribute to low ISP variety.
Contra Costa County, CA (HHI: 4,758.09)
- A suburban county in the San Francisco Bay Area.
- Highly concentrated market with limited broadband provider diversity.
- Average price per month: $170.51, indicating potential lack of price competition.
- Suburban geography may make fiber expansion slower compared to urban cores.
Nassau County, NY (HHI: 4,534.10)
- Another Long Island county, neighboring Suffolk County.
- Highly concentrated market with dominant ISPs.
- Average price per month: $166.01, moderately high for a suburban area.
- Like Suffolk, geographic and policy constraints could limit ISP competition.
Westchester County, NY (HHI: 4,508.56)
- A wealthy suburban county just north of NYC.
- Highly concentrated market, likely due to strong incumbent provider control.
- Average price per month: $141.23, lower than some other highly concentrated counties.
- Affluent communities may have better service quality despite lower competition.
Honolulu County, HI (HHI: 4,283.79)
- The largest county in Hawaii, encompassing the entire island of Oahu.
- Highly concentrated market with very few competing ISPs.
- Average price per month: $245.35, the highest on this list.
- Geographic isolation limits the number of providers and competition.
County Competitiveness At Multiple Speed Tiers
The following table depicts the breakdown of counties nationwide at both 100+ Mbps download as well as 25+ Mbps.
| Speed Tier | Least Competitive (HHI > 2500) | Moderately Competitive (1500–2500) | Highly Competitive (HHI < 1500) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Plans | 91% | 8% | 1% (26 counties) |
| 25+ Mbps | 93% | 6% | 1% (17 counties) |
| 100+ Mbps | 96% | 4% | 0% (9 counties) |
Most Competitive Broadband Markets (Lowest HHI Values)
The following broadband markets enjoy a level of competitiveness that is largely unseen in the country at large. Unsurprisingly, they also represent some of the most populous counties in the nation:
New York County, NY (HHI: 1,044.69)
- Home to Manhattan, one of the densest urban areas in the U.S.
- Multiple large ISPs compete, leading to low market concentration.
- Average price per month: $149.45 – relatively low compared to other counties.
- Fiber availability is high due to urban infrastructure investments.
Fulton County, GA (HHI: 1,327.54)
- Includes Atlanta, a major tech and business hub.
- Strong ISP competition with fiber and cable providers.
- Average price per month: $172.16 – slightly higher, likely due to regional factors.
- Significant broadband investment from both private and municipal initiatives.
Salt Lake County, UT (HHI: 1,442.51)
- Covers Salt Lake City, a rapidly growing metro area.
- Competitive market with multiple ISPs expanding fiber access.
- Average price per month: $149.93, keeping affordability in check.
- Utah has strong municipal broadband efforts contributing to competition.
Miami-Dade County, FL (HHI: 1,443.71)
- Includes Miami, a diverse and economically varied area.
- Market is still competitive but leans toward moderate concentration.
- Average price per month: $193.27, among the highest on this list.
- Large population and tourism industry contribute to ISP investments.
King County, WA (HHI: 1,534.49)
- Home to Seattle, a major tech hub with gigabit-speed networks.
- Moderate concentration but still competitive.
- Average price per month: $157.62, showing variation within the market.
- Presence of tech companies and startups drives broadband demand.
Extended Discussion
The Price of Monopoly Power
The consistent moderate-to-strong correlation between market concentration and higher broadband prices reveals a systemic issue: less competition means consumers pay more. This pattern mirrors monopolistic behavior seen in other utilities, where limited choice allows dominant firms to set prices above competitive levels.
As previously noted, the typical price in uncompetitive counties is $269.90, compared to $174.23 in the most competitive counties—a difference of $95.67 or 35.44% higher in concentrated markets. This “monopoly premium” disproportionately harms low-income households, who spend a larger share of their income on essential connectivity.
Why Infrastructure Isn’t the Whole Story
While rural infrastructure costs are often cited to justify higher prices, our findings challenge this narrative:
- Same Correlation, Different Speeds: The relationship between HHI and pricing holds even for high-speed plans (100+ Mbps), which are typically deployed in urban/suburban areas where infrastructure is cheaper
- Rural Double Bind: While rural areas face higher deployment costs, they also suffer from extreme market concentration, creating a feedback loop where high prices deter new entrants
The High-Speed Crisis
The near-total absence of competitive markets for 100+ Mbps plans is particularly concerning:
- 96% of counties lack meaningful competition for high-speed internet
- Dominant ISPs face little pressure to upgrade networks or offer fair pricing
- Rural and underserved urban areas are left with outdated infrastructure
Looking Ahead
The broadband market’s competitive health varies significantly across the country, but clear patterns emerge showing that competition is possible with the right conditions and policies. Success stories from counties like King County, WA, and Travis County, TX, provide blueprints for other regions looking to improve their broadband competitive landscape.
Affordable, high-speed internet is a 21st-century civil right. Market concentration isn’t just an economic issue—it exacerbates inequality, leaving marginalized communities behind. By treating broadband as a public good and fostering competition, we can ensure access for all, not just the privileged few.
Limitations and Future Research
While this study highlights critical trends, further work is needed:
- Data Gaps: ISP pricing and coverage data remain incomplete, particularly for tribal lands and low-income urban areas
- Causal Analysis: Longitudinal studies could track counties where new competitors enter the market or where policy changes enhance competition, measuring the direct impact on pricing trends over time.
- Global Comparisons: How do U.S. prices and competition compare to countries with strict market regulations (e.g., South Korea, Germany)?
Methodology
Our analysis leverages data from 87.6 million speed tests conducted across the United States in Q4 2024 from 10/1 to 12/31.
We calculated market shares using:
- Speed test data from M-Lab’s NDT dataset
- Provider identification through Autonomous System Numbers (ASNs)
- Proprietary pricing data from our comprehensive ISP database
Market concentration, measured by the HHI, reflects the competitiveness of Internet Service Providers (ISPs). Higher HHI values indicate oligopolistic markets, often linked to inflated consumer prices. The HHI is calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in the market and summing the resulting numbers. The U.S. Department of Justice considers markets with HHI above 2,500 to be highly concentrated.
HHI Calculation:
HHI = i = 1∑Nsi2×10,000
Speed Tiers:
For this study, we emphasized broadband speeds as defined federally (100 Mbps download. In total, however, we analyzed three tiers:
- All internet plans
- Plans with ≥25 Mbps download
- Plans with ≥100 Mbps download
About BroadbandNow Research
This report is part of our ongoing effort to analyze and improve broadband accessibility and affordability across the United States. Our research team combines comprehensive data analysis with industry expertise to provide actionable insights for policymakers, industry leaders, and consumers.
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